Strongmen in power can be useful allies. They make decisions fast and can impose their wills. But when they depart,
more often than not, they leave chaos or something close to it in their wake. So Meles Zenawi’s recent vanishing act raises concern for one of Africa’s most complex and volatile regions.
The ruthless, usually omnipresent, 57-year-old prime minister of Ethiopia has not been seen in public since mid-June. He is recovering from a serious illness, officials insist, and will be back soon. But they have provided no details of where he is or what is wrong with him. As elsewhere in Africa, the health of the leader is still an unhealthy taboo.
In the 21 years since he led his guerrilla movement to victory following a long war against the murderous Mengistu regime, Mr Meles has proved himself a reliable ally to the US in particular and west in general. His adroit diplomatic abilities have proved invaluable in Sudan, where he has been a relatively neutral interlocutor between north and south at times of conflict. He has built Ethiopia into a regional superpower that combats terrorism and imposes military solutions – notably in Somalia. For this, western donors and allies have been willing to overlook human rights abuses and a lack of political freedom at home.
As Rwandans like to say about their own autocratic leader, nothing much grows in the shadow of big trees. Mr Meles has stamped his authority on a fractious and ethnically diverse nation with an iron fist. He has stripped the government and ruling party of potential rivals, and moved steadily over the years from consensual to more personalised rule. In intellectual stature he has no obvious successor at home, where discontent, as in much of the nearby Arab world, bubbles beneath the surface, kept there by an authoritarian state.
Equally, there is no obvious replacement for him in the region or on the international stage where he has skilfully championed Africa’s cause on climate change and other pressing development issues. Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan president who has been in power two years longer, is a fading force. Rwanda’s Paul Kagame packs a punch, but his tiny country lacks geopolitical swagger.
Mr Meles may indeed return to take up the reins. But the need for a clear succession plan and transition to more inclusive rule can be in little doubt. His allies must see that relying on a strongman rather than strong institutions, while avoiding instability today, risks merely storing it up for the future.
Tags: Addis Ababa, Meles Zenawi
mihanud
August 15, 2012 at 6:28 am
we are ethiopian i want to know our priminister melez death our life
becous of trul o false is not our culuta that we have relgins in ethiopia
Zemzem
August 13, 2012 at 5:14 pm
I don’t know why so many people worry about the disappearance of PM Meles. If nature has taken its course,we can do nothing about it. If he is still alive and recovering we will see him on new year. what I am worried most is the depletion of foreign currency from the nation banks,the draught in the southern regions,the injustice being done to our Muslim brothers and sisters and the plight of the Ethiopian people under his rule.If he is gone not to return back,it is just minus one.There are still hundreds of parasites on the back of Ethiopian people.Every citizen should concentrate on how to tame and make less dangerous those parasites or———.
Derbabaw
August 13, 2012 at 4:38 pm
As an ETHIOPIAN in any kind of shape or form I don’t miss the dictator meles.no way, but I have a better idea though, which is I rather wish him to suffer instead of DETH.
Selamawit Solomon
August 13, 2012 at 12:20 pm
THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT BY THE AUTHOR SAYS IT ALL …………….
“His allies must see that relying on a strongman rather than strong institutions, while avoiding instability today, risks merely storing it up for the future.”
aghere
August 13, 2012 at 7:46 am
When great men’s brains go bad
New book cites glaring examples of how one person’s health can affect the lives of millions
It was June ,1942,during World War II and Russia was in desperate need of tanks,planes,ammunition,food and other war necessities.The Soviet army was involved in a fearsome battle against Hitler’s Panter divisions.which were advancing deeper and deeper into Russian territory and winning on all fronts.It appeared that without supplies the future course of World War II in the east was in doubt.And no one knew that a dreadful naval decision was about to be made to further the conquests of Nazi Germany.
To aid the Russian army,allied commanders decided to assemble a huge convoy of British and American ships withe final destination,Archangel,in northern Russia.It was a perilous journey under the best of conditions.
The strategy was to have this heavy naval escort meet merchant ships carrying supplies north of Iceland.They were then to proceed through frigid enemy water controlled by German submarines and torpedo-bombers based in northern Norway.
But a strange thing happened while in these treacherous waters.The escorting naval ships received an order telling them to leave the convoy at high speed.In addition,the puzzled captains of the merchant ships were told to scatter and proceed to Archangel.These murderous signals sent from 2000 miles away ruslted in a frightful disaser.For U-Boat commanders and topedo-bombers it became a shooting gallery.Just 11 of the 34 ships reached their destination.Winston Churchill called convoy PQ 17 one of the most melancholy episodes of the whole war.
But who sent this infamous signal against all naval advice?It was The First Lord of the British Admiraly,Sir Dudley Pound.Members of his staff had noticed for some time that he was suffering from exhaustion and fell asleep when meeting with President Roosevelt and at other high-level meetings.They also questioned whether his symptoms might be due to serious disease.But because Churchill held him in high esteem,as did other admiral,no one suggested that he should seek medical attention.
When Pound issued this infamous order he was actually suffering the symptoms of a glioma,a type of brain tumour,and died a few months later.
Dr.Bengt Ljunggren,a Swedidh neurosurgeon and historian ,outlines in his book Great Men with Sick Brains,how often we do not learn from history.Many medically unfit people of power make decision that affect millions of people without receiving medical help.
Winston Churchill replaced Neville Chamberlain as Prime Minister in May 1940.Chamberlain had returned from a meeting with Adolph Hitler,reporting the Fuhrer had agreed to peace.But Chamberlain’s mental and physical buouyancey was already failing and he died of inoperable colon cancer in November of that year.
The British ambassador to Washington,Lord Lothian,showed even greaer signs that his brain was failing.He too had the habit of falling asleep.But on his arrival in the U.S. he surprised journalists by declaring,”Well boys,Britain is broke.It’s your money we want!”.had severe kidney failure and died two weeks later.
The great tragedy in all these cases is that close collegues were sleeping at the switch.It was apparent to them that Sir Dudley Pound was sleeping 75% of the time and was not adequately handling the task of managing the admiralty.
During the conference on whether to invade Sicily or Sardinia,Field Marshal Viscount Alanbrooke noted that Pound had no opinion either way.Laer at the Casablanca Conference,General George S.Patton remarked on Pound’s indecision.And even when Poud had lost the function of his foot and hand,he still atended a conference in Quebec City.
Symtoms of glioma are the same as most brain tumours,depending on the location of the malignancy.The most common symptom is head-ache affecting about half of all patents.Other symptoms include personality changes,mental decline,seizures and finally,in the case of Sir Dudley Pound ,right-sided paralysis and death.
Tragic mistakes could have been avoided if Poud had been forced to resign or at least consult a physician.Sadly,we do not learn from history.( This ariticle is taken from’The Saturday Sun,Toronto,June 30,2012″)
Comment:I hope this article give us some clue of Ethiopia’s leadership.Prime Minister Melese Zenawi fits in this story.It his party that killed him or led him to a drastic downfall.It could be his arrogance or addiction with power that led him to this sad ending.Whatever may be the factors do the leaders in Ethiopia learn from history?His stakeholders want him back if he comes back to his throne.The distruction of the second could be far worse than the first.God save Ethiopia.